{
  "phase": "phase3_analysis_of_phase2_grid",
  "n_records": 450,
  "n_ok": 444,
  "errors": {
    "n_error": 6,
    "n_total": 450,
    "rate": 0.013333333333333334,
    "by_arm": {
      "C": 5,
      "B": 1
    },
    "by_config": {
      "diag_33": 2,
      "elast_b3": 4
    },
    "by_thesis": {
      "T-002": 3,
      "T-003": 3
    }
  },
  "paired": {
    "C-A": {
      "n": 145,
      "mean_delta": 0.07517241379310347,
      "sigma_d": 0.14032751100489024
    },
    "C-B": {
      "n": 145,
      "mean_delta": -0.011724137931034485,
      "sigma_d": 0.09166927895964301
    },
    "B-A": {
      "n": 149,
      "mean_delta": 0.087248322147651,
      "sigma_d": 0.12468261902539045
    }
  },
  "power_n_per_arm": {
    "C-A": [
      {
        "delta": 0.03,
        "sigma_d": 0.14032751100489024,
        "n": 176
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.05,
        "sigma_d": 0.14032751100489024,
        "n": 64
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.08,
        "sigma_d": 0.14032751100489024,
        "n": 25
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.1,
        "sigma_d": 0.14032751100489024,
        "n": 16
      }
    ],
    "C-B": [
      {
        "delta": 0.03,
        "sigma_d": 0.09166927895964301,
        "n": 75
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.05,
        "sigma_d": 0.09166927895964301,
        "n": 27
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.08,
        "sigma_d": 0.09166927895964301,
        "n": 11
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.1,
        "sigma_d": 0.09166927895964301,
        "n": 7
      }
    ],
    "B-A": [
      {
        "delta": 0.03,
        "sigma_d": 0.12468261902539045,
        "n": 139
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.05,
        "sigma_d": 0.12468261902539045,
        "n": 50
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.08,
        "sigma_d": 0.12468261902539045,
        "n": 20
      },
      {
        "delta": 0.1,
        "sigma_d": 0.12468261902539045,
        "n": 13
      }
    ]
  },
  "position_bias": {
    "n": 145,
    "by_order": {
      "bear_first": {
        "n": 103,
        "mean": 0.45,
        "std": 0.07669649888473708
      },
      "bull_first": {
        "n": 42,
        "mean": 0.44761904761904764,
        "std": 0.07485952776121305
      }
    },
    "delta_bull_first_minus_bear_first": -0.0023809523809523725
  },
  "recommendation": {
    "headline": "Arm B (equal-budget both-sides) beats or matches Arm C on mean probability; Arm C clearly beats Arm A. Bear intensity (elasticity) moves C verdicts substantially \u2014 structure alone is not the dominant lever.",
    "mean_delta_C_minus_B": -0.011724137931034485,
    "mean_delta_C_minus_A": 0.07517241379310347,
    "position_bias_delta": -0.0023809523809523725,
    "elasticity_elast_b1_minus_elast_b3": 0.14148148148148154,
    "recommended_N_theses_for_delta_0.05_CB": 27,
    "recommended_N_theses_for_delta_0.03_CB": 75,
    "scale_decision": "For detecting |\u0394(C\u2212B)|=0.05, need ~27 paired thesis-cells (design target N\u224840 theses \u00d7 k\u22653 is ample if effect \u22650.05). Observed mean C\u2212B is near zero/negative \u2014 prioritize intensity/elasticity write-up over claiming adversarial structure superiority.",
    "next": [
      "Complete human coding of 50-cell subsample (falsifier quality).",
      "Do not scale to N=40 until coding + elasticity narrative locked.",
      "Optional: verbosity probe (token counts vs p) if research_bundle lengths logged.",
      "Draft public note once coding scores land."
    ]
  },
  "human_coding_sample_n": 50,
  "human_coding_dir": "analysis/outputs/phase3/human_coding"
}